Guardian Article on China Emissions Plan Amounts to Wishful Thinking

Those who stumbled across the recent Guardian article "China Considers Setting Targets for Carbon Emissions" probably did not fall off of their seats like I did. But at the very least you might have involuntarily raised an eyebrow, or two, and thought "huh, now that's a game changer."

For people who monitor developments in climate negotiations religiously, this article was practically heaven sent. But, upon closer examination, it proved little more than a manipulated quote and a very sexy, if misleading argument.

Beijing-based Jonathan Watts does not normally produce rubbish. He is an insightful, verging on conservative, journalist whose China stories tend to report developments which many on the ground or those familiar with China know of, but outsiders do not.

For those of us who, like Watts, depend on China-side developments in climate negotiations and other environmental news for our livelihood, the last three weeks have been a time of hunger. Ever since Chinese leader Hu and President Obama met in London during the G20, China has made nary a peep about the 500 pound white elephant that lives in Scandinavia, also known as Copenhagen.

What better way to wake people up Sunday morning than with the news that "China considers setting targets for emissions"?

However, the devil is in the details, as they say, so let's take a look at this article.

The Chinese government is for the first time considering setting targets for carbon emissions, a significant development that could help negotiations on a Kyoto successor treaty at Copenhagen later this year, the Guardian has learned.

Intriguing news. But, unless things have changed dramatically since the beginning of Communist China, if not earlier, the government typically does not rely on foreign newspapers to carry internal party changes on specific political positions. That's the role of China's state-run media, and only after the news has been sufficiently sanitized of detail and intrigue to warrant it all but completely pedestrian, rather than newsworthy.

Watts goes on to say:

Su Wei, a leading figure in China's climate change negotiating team, said that officials were considering introducing a national target that would limit emissions relative to economic growth in the country's next five-year plan from 2011.

That sentence starts factually enough. Su Wei is, indeed, a "leading figure in China's climate change negotiating team." His attendance in Bonn and various comments made on the public record (which we’ve written about before) attest to Su's importance in the negotiation process.

But did he tell Watts "officials were considering introducing a national target that would limit emissions" in the next five-year plan?

Maybe. But, the key is deciphering the intended meaning from what is implied.

China’s current five-year plan will conclude in 2010. Officials from the NDRC will meet well in advance to decide the policies that will guide the 12th five-year plan, from 2011-2015, suggesting that the timing is not totally unaligned with the Copenhagen schedule.

However, considering how previous five-year plans have been formulated, it would be very unusual to announce plans and features of the next five-year plan externally. Moreover, to do so even as early as December be premature by Chinese government standards, as details of new five-year plans typically do not surface more than a year prior to implementation, at the annual legislative NPC session.

Finally, we have the piece de resistance, a direct quote from Su Wei. He says, referring to emissions targets:

"It is an option. We can very easily translate our [existing] energy reduction targets to carbon dioxide limitation. China hasn't reached the stage where we can reduce overall emissions, but we can reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity."

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