UN: Next 24 Hours 'Critical' for Global Warming Pact

Reporting from Copenhagen

The world's leaders can still forge a global warming pact in Copenhagen but only if major progress is made over the next day, UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said this evening at the UN climate change negotiations.

With two days remaining in the international conference, talks remain deadlocked on all major issues.

"The next 24 hours will be absolutely critical," de Boer said. He said the conference must deliver agreements on "adaptation, mitigation, finance, technology and forests."

De Boer's comments came as climate talks officially moved into the high-level segment. Many of the 115 heads of government joining the conference for its finale will begin arriving at Copenhagen's Bella Center on Thursday, adding security concerns on top of the pressure of cranking out the framework for one of the most complex treaties ever negotiated.

No Money, No Deal

The key sticking point remains financing for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts, ranging from programs to end deforestation to those that could bring clean energy technology to the developing world.

Without money, developing nations have said, there will be no deal. They're calling for $200 billion per year by 2020, but as of Wednesday night, there were still no firm commitments from wealthy nations to deliver long-term financing.

"Africa is not prepared to accept empty words and agreements that undermine its fundamental interest," said Ethiopian Prime Minister Males Zenawi, speaking for the Africa group of nations.

The only money on the table is a $30 billion package of "fast-start" funds that would run from 2010 to 2012.

On Wednesday, wealthy nations heralded an agreement to pump $3.5 billion into REDD, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. That money, however, would likely flow from the total pot of kick-start money. It's also just a fraction of the at least $25 billion in seed funding that poorer forest nations say is needed to begin to slow deforestation.

The EU trumpeted its annual $3.5 billion financing contribution to the kick-start money.

Japan announced its contribution to the fund late Wednesday — a $15 billion pledge for developing nations to 2012, of which $11 billion would come from public financing. It will dedicate the funds only if a "successful political accord is achieved" in Copenhagen. The deal must be "fair and effective" and include major developing emitters, such as China, India and Brazil.

The United States hasn't put any concrete figures on the table.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry, who landed in Copenhagen today for a whirlwind 24 hours of negotiating, said it is essential "to talk" long-term finance, but "the most important thing" is securing a short-term deal.

José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission said: "The EU has made an important contribution for financing. We need an American partner and a Chinese partner."

Emissions Targets and Bracketed Text

The scale of CO2 emissions-reduction targets by rich nations is creeping toward 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, far more ambitious than the United States' proposal, but well below what scientists say is necessary to slow climate change. The G77 plus China are calling for an aggregate target of 40 percent from 1990 by 2020.

The U.S. is adamant about a strong review and verification system that would tie financing in poor nations to their national carbon-fighting goals. For its part, the developing world wants to ensure that a strong legal deal is in place before the Kyoto Protocol gets dumped for a broader pact that covers the United States.

Neither of these has yet to be agreed upon.

The Danish government released another draft text, which China said would kill Kyoto and strongly favor the rich. In the end, and after much debate, the basic document emerged full of bracketed text, meaning most, if not all, of the major issues will likely be sent up to the heads of government for resolution in the last hours of talks.

A deal could happen in the "last minutes," Barroso said.