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Study: Ethanol Mandate Creates 10% Chance of a Corn Price Spike

Bad Weather + Biofuel Demand Could Rapidly Double Prices

Apr 6, 2010

The prices of corn and other foods sit on the edge of a knife. Thanks to federally mandated ethanol standards, food prices could spike dramatically if drought or bad weather shrinks the U.S. corn yield this year, and the country lacks a good policy mechanism to handle such an event.

A report from two economists at the University of Illinois found that if the corn belt sees bad weather of the sort that has about a 10 percent chance of happening in any given year, the price of a bushel of corn could rise to $7 from about $3.50 today. The reverberations of such an event would be felt throughout food markets in the country, and, if history repeats itself, around the world.

“We have gone through over a decade of very good weather in the U.S. corn belt, and that explains why we’ve had a tendency to have such good yields,” said Scott Irwin, one of the authors of the report. “It is not that technology has overcome the problem of drought for corn production.”

Irwin said many farmers claim that technological advances in farming practices have produced about 15 years of generally good and rising crop yields, but this does not account enough for simple luck.

“There is still a significant yield risk if we have a corn belt-wide drought. “We don’t believe in the ‘bulletproof hypothesis.’”

Corn Production and Ethanol

Corn production for ethanol has increased dramatically over the last five years, from about 1.6 billion bushels in 2005-2006 to almost 3.7 billion bushels in 2008-2009. The percentage of corn used for ethanol rose in that period from 9.5 percent of the total yield to a projected 22 percent in 2009-2010.

The 2007 Renewable Fuels Standards Program calls for more. It requires 12.95 billion gallons of renewable fuel production for 2010, rising to 13.95 billion gallons in 2011; small portions of that are required to fall under the categories of advanced biofuels, but most will come in the form of ethanol. In order to meet those marks, Irwin and his colleague Darrel Good estimate the industry will need 4.4 billion bushels of corn.

“Given normal weather, that trade-off is not that sharp, or that notable, between biofuel and food,” Irwin said. “Where it really pinches would be if we get bad weather.” The modeling done in the report is based on a drought that has about a one in 10 chance of happening; if that does occur, the total corn yield will likely be about 10.9 billion bushels—down more than 2.1 billion bushels from the previous year—meaning that those required 4.4 billion bushels for ethanol would represent more than 40 percent of the total yield.

Irwin stressed that it is hard—if not impossible—to predict if such a weather event will occur in a given year, but “we’ve gone through about a 15-year period of fantastic weather in July and August for the corn belt, and we think that has lulled people a bit to sleep about this kind of scenario actually occurring.”

Historical Precedent

The potential doubling in the price of corn highlights the ongoing issue of food crop competition with biofuel production.

“That’s part of the reason why biofuels is a big boondoggle,” said Kate McMahon, energy policy campaigner at the non-profit Friends of the Earth. “Back in 2008 we saw huge problems with this. Our corn production shifted a lot toward fuel, and when that happened we saw prices of grain all around the world skyrocket. Whether it be from market distortions and policies like the renewable fuel standards, or from droughts, it’s the same problem.”

Comments

Ethanol

read this article for a side of the ethanol story no one is telling but me

http://thelortonshow.com/TownHallMeeting/articleObamahealth.htm

simple question on food price

'food' manufacturers and marketers around the USA blamed all of their significant price increases on the ~$7.50 bushel corn spike in 2008......Why haven't prices gone back down now that corn has been ~$3.50 - 4.00 per bushel for well over a year now????

Because it was not due to corn price. It was due to fuel prices. Their greed has kept the price high. You only hear the trumpet blaming corn price when it is high. They have been silent on the issue now for over a year. Corn is a convenient scapegoat for them to keep the public from looking at the real culprits.

When bad weather happens?

I guess Mr. Levitan didn't consider the mass flooding that took place two years ago in Iowa and other states, or the horrible conditions at planting & harvest last year.

Beyond that, we have more corn in on-farm storage today than what the entire ethanol industry will use in 2010. When you add all of the commercial storage, it seems almost comical to imagine half of the above.

The CBO, GAO, several universities and others concluded that ethanol had little impact on food prices in 2008. It was the price of energy, particularly crude, that made all products, including food, skyrocket.

While the USDA puts corn to

While the USDA puts corn to ethanol slightly above 4 Billion bushels, the question remains "How much corn does the ethanol industry displace"? Since the farmer is willing to pay for half the cost of that bushel of corn back as protein and significantly reduce corn in feeding, isn't this food and fuel.

The Truth

The truth of this study is an unfair attack on ethanol that is not dissimular to saying that if a hurricane hits the gulf coast and wipes out some of our oil refineries, we will experience an oil spike.

!

NOBODY WANTS YOUR STUPID ETHANOL, YOU STUPID CHARITY CASE....GET A REAL JOB INSTEAD OF SUCKING OFF THE TAXPAYER!!!

Ethanol Mandate

All,

There is no issue with the American Farmer to produce enough corn to supply both the enough Feed, Food and Fuel. We are carried in close to 2 Billion bushels this year. Weather for growing was atrocious throughout the Midwest last year and we had one of the best yielding corn crops in history.

There will only be two reasons for significant prices spikes in corn - Oil Prices and Speculators throwing money into commodities.

Bad Weather

In 2009, in Indiana, the farmers had a wet Spring which delayed planting, a cool summer which certainly was NOT "ideal" growing conditions and a wet harvest. Yet they still managed to record the second highest yield per acre on record. There is plenty of corn for food and fuel.

Ethanol

Interesting how inconvenient truths are completely ignored. For example, reference is made to Gov Perry, but we forgot to include HIS request for a study from his own PREMIER ag school Texas A&M showing ethanol's impact. Unfortunate for the Gov that they said there was only minimal impact and it was that what we are fighting, oil dependence, that caused high commodities prices (including corn). This has just recently been substantiated by a U.K. Govt. study. A combination of demand for the products (incl. corn for ethanol), better farm practices and a little good luck has resulted in our present situation where the WORLD has historically high levels of grain in stock. If we're worried about reductions, remove that demand, let the price of corn go to $2 per bushel as many want (GMA) and watch how many acres don't get planted. Now you will see a reduction! WSJ said that corn would have been $2 bu this year given record yields and stocks without this demand. Ethanol is a good thing unless you like supressing agriculture and/or becoming subservient to Big Oil/Iran/Saudi/Hugo! Throw in reduced need to have our troops in harms way, cleaner burning and ethanol is a no-brainer. Sorry for these inconvenient truths...

Largest Corn carryover since 1987

Not only did Mr. Levitan miss the fact that despite horrible weather conditions for US farmers we still produced a record corn crop; which contributes to the largest corn carryover of farmer and commercialy stored supply of corn going into the 2010 planting season. This carryover of over 7 billion bushels corn exceeds 1987 which held the previous record. The 7 billion bushels of corn stored on farms and in grain elevators exceeds annual US total corn production of the early 1990's. Despite livestock feeding, exports, record ethanol production and less than desirable weather conditions across the United States; American farmers on fewer acres, using less inputs of fertilizer, chemical and fuel continue to produce an excess supply of grain. I would encourage Mr. Levitan to actually tour farms and our grain infrastructure from Texas thru the upper midwest to gain a greater appreciation of what American farmers can produce and deliver to the market.

CROOK

YOU'RE NOT FARMERS, YOU'RE WELFARE RECIPIENTS...

"Thanks to federally

"Thanks to federally mandated ethanol standards, food prices could spike dramatically if drought or bad weather shrinks the U.S. corn yield this year." This seems to be the theme of this uninformed article by the 'Chicken Littles' of the environmental movement. There are many good responses posted that point out some of the factual errors. To elaborate on just a couple, the 2008 spike occured after two major grinding operations were forced to shut down due to flooding, causing a momentary tightness in the processed corn market. Uninformed traders (you know the type - the wall street type that trade on sub prime mortgages) caused a spike in the CBT prices (not actual contract sales prices). Many things in our lives are event driven, be they weather or speculator reaction. This spike would have occured regardlass of how we used corn. As it turned out, 2008 corn production broke records. So what is your point?

Secondly, corn is essentially made from a waste product - it is just removed from the corn kernel first. Oils and protiens are 'bi-products' of ethanol production. If corn is fed directly to the cow or hog, most of the starch comes out with the manure as their digestive tracts are not designed to use that much. This is particulary true of ruminant animals like cows. The food or fuel arguement has been discredited many times over, we don't need to hear it again.

Food prices are most strongly affected by energy (oil) prices. According to Oil inteligent Report, an independent oil business journal, the presence of ethanol in the fuel market has mitigated gasoline prices by about 15%. USDA estimates that the price of corn affects food prices by less than 1/2%. Ethanol actually should help to lower food costs.

Please give us articles that are about real issues.

FRAUD

IF ITS SO WONDERFUL THEN DO IT WITHOUT SUBSIDIES YOU LYING FRAUD...

Price of Corn

It occurs to me that the price of most food crops in the midwest will skyrocket simultaneously with the onset of the next ice age. What I read seems to be a combination of crystal ball gazing and guessing. Since I have been following the price of corn and the weather, it seems that when the price goes up because of a perceived shortage, the following year more corn is produced followed by a drop in the price. The last perceived shortage was identified only by the media. The price did go up, but corn was being stored on the ground by elevators because of no room at the inn. When researching(?) facts for a column, look at both or all sides of the issue. The price of popcorn at the theatres went way up, even field corn has never been used for popcorn. And by the way there was no shortage of popcorn.

say anything

The ethanol lobby is clearly well represented among the readers here. I supposed I shouldn't be surprised that people will say anything to protect their livelihoods.

Just people stating the

Just people stating the facts, which many don't like because it goes against their interests or does not conform with the disinformatioin that they've been subjected to for so long, some of which stuck. Hard for us to understand what people don't like about a fuel that we can produce annually with the ever-growing abundance of corn we grow when it limits the amount of money we send outside the U.S. to fund wars/terror against us, provides positive economic impact, and is cleaner burning for our envirionment that people don't like. Personally, I attribute it to the disinformation over the years. Learn more and you'll get on board too!

because its a fraud, you

because its a fraud, you fool...it takes more energy to produce corn-based ethanol than you get from the d@mn ethanol!!!  plow, disc, plant, fertilize, weed, harvest, transport and then start the processing...IT'S A JOKE!!! AND ALL OF AMERICA KNOWS IT...YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES...GROW SOME D@MN SUGAR BEETS AND CONVERT THOSE INTO ETHANOL AND QUIT STEALING FROM THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER YOU CROOK...

They speak the truth!

Seems to me the truth hurts, particularly whent the authors of the article didn't do their homework!!

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