BP Oil Spill, Gridlock in Congress, Already Shaping November Elections in 4 States

WASHINGTON—Tick tock. As the sultry insufferable days of early July ooze toward the dog days of August, the U.S. Senate and oil giant BP are grappling with monumental endeavors that, at first glance, might seem entirely separate.

But political observers will tell you that the Senate’s attempts to fashion some sort of acceptable climate and energy legislation and BP’s push to finish and finesse two relief wells in the Gulf of Mexico are intertwined enough to profoundly influence the nation’s energy future and the outcome of midterm elections in November.

The success or failure of one or both undertakings will certainly alter and influence the energy and climate conversation candidates engage in as congressional campaigns get going in earnest. So far, races in 4 states are already talking about energy and global warming emissions at this early stage of campaigning, with poll data showing strong voter concern and a desire for new solutions. 

In election years, the unofficial end to legislative progress occurs when the chamber’s August recess begins. So, once senators return from their Independence Day break July 12, they have only 20 days between then and Aug. 9 to figure out if they can harness 60 votes for a bill that tackles heat-trapping gases and addresses a clear path toward clean energy.

The Senate probably won’t act that quickly, however, unless the White House deploys an exceptionally large hammer -- which means that races across the country are likely to be significantly influenced by voter reaction to Congressional gridlock, and whether BP's runaway well is still gushing oil when they pull the lever.

Is a national pattern already emerging as campaigners draw their battle lines in Florida and California, Nevada and Virginia? 

BP continues to estimate that its two relief wells will be completed in the first half of August—about the time the Senate enters its summer recess. Work on the first well began May 2, and work on the second started May 16. BP has consistently stuck to a three-month completion timeline for both.

If the relief wells once and for all halt the flow of millions of barrels of oil and natural gas that have sullied coastlines and deep water ecosystems across the Gulf, legislative action on climate and energy might not seem as pressing in a nation of short attention spans that grinds forward on a schedule of election cycles.

But if the relief wells are a bust, the spill that has escalated into an ecological and economic calamity could further mute shouts of “Drill, baby, drill!” and perhaps help climate and energy issues nudge aside jobs and the economy from its No. 1 perch of citizen concerns.

League of Conservation Voters Eyes Connection

While its still early in this year’s election cycle—many voters often don’t tune in to mid-term elections until after Labor Day—Tony Massaro of the nonprofit League of Conservation Voters notes that the public is ahead of the politicians on the energy and global warming front.

“But that’s not unusual,” Massaro, senior vice president for political affairs, tells SolveClimate in an interview. “We think the BP oil spill is going to continue to have a high response from the public. Our challenge is to do the pivot from the oil spill. That is, take the attention being paid to energy and make sure that it extends to action on climate.”

He points to the results of a league poll that the Benenson Strategy Group released in June showing overwhelming public support for comprehensive energy legislation that encompasses more than just having BP pay for damages.

“Voters firmly believe Congress needs to do more than just make BP pay for the Gulf Coast oil spill,” says Joel Benenson, president of the New York group that conducted the poll. “They want senators to pass real reforms to invest in clean American energy and hold polluters accountable.”

Benenson’s pollsters executed two nationwide telephone polls of registered voters to collect their data. The first set of interviews was conducted May 4-5, with the second following between May 25 and June 1.