Natural Gas Boom Not Worth Costs and Risks, Study Warns

Just last month, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology portrayed gas-fired electricity as a natural "bridge" between coal and zero-carbon sources, in a highly regarded report.

But that's not so, says new research commissioned by the American Public Power Association, a collection of 2,000 community-owned utilities trying to keep costs of a U.S. energy transition in check.

"The magnitude of the investment that would be needed ... seems inconsistent with the oft-touted idea of natural gas as a temporary 'bridge' fuel," said the 100-page report, "Implications of Greater Reliance on Natural Gas for Electricity Generation."

Catherine Elder, a senior research associate at consulting firm Aspen Environmental Group, who conducted the study, analyzed the economics of shutting down all U.S. coal plants and shifting to cleaner-burning natural gas in a carbon-regulated economy.

"The primary difference between our study and MIT's is that ours focuses primarily on the infrastructure issues" surrounding the switch, Nicholas Braden, a spokesperson for APPA, told SolveClimate.

Currently, coal powers half the nation's electric generation. The changeover would cost roughly $1 million per megawatt, Elder claims.

"Replacing 335,000 MW of coal-fired generation thus should cost in the range of $335 billion," the study said.

Further, it would require an additional $348 billion of new pipeline capacity — if anything close to that scale is even possible.

Elder warned that natural gas production is now at its peak of 23 trillion cubic feet a year. That's slightly higher than the sector's prior record in 1972 of 22 trillion cubic feet a year.

Any boost in demand seems "unwise" without expecting prices to shoot "to much higher levels," she wrote.

Beyond the infrastructure challenge, Elder questions whether there is sufficient supply. There are only enough proven natural gas reserves "to last ten years if we continue to use what we used last year," according to the report.

However, potential resources — known in the industry as "probable," "possible" or "speculative," depending on their level of uncertainty — are another story. Recent estimates say they could be large.

The MIT report, for instance, said the nation has enough to equal over 90 years' worth at present domestic consumption rates.

But much of that is from unconventional sources, including shale gas, whose future may be threatened from coming environmental regulation.

A 'Fracking' Boom

With easy-to-find gas fields in decline, the industry began drilling deep under the surface in recent years to tap gas trapped in shale rock formations, sparking a sudden boom for the lucrative resource across Texas, Pennsylvania and Louisiana.

Now, millions of acres of the sedimentary rock have been located in over 20 states.

The problem, observers say, is that unlocking shale gas could produce potentially toxic effects.

The process, known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," blasts millions of gallons of water and chemicals deep into horizontal wells to fracture the rock and release gas.

"The chemicals that are added contain some amount of materials that may be toxic and residents are fearful that these chemicals might migrate and potentially contaminate drinking water supplies," the study said.

And fracking is not a one-shot deal, Elder added. Some shale gas production may require refracturing every five years in wells that have a lifespan of 20 to 40 years.

Complaints Over Water