Is Murkowski's Loss an Omen of a Coming Tilt toward Climate Denialism?

WASHINGTON—Folks with a conservation bent who cheered so heartily when Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski was evidently toppled in her bid for a third term might want to think twice about their joyful reaction.

Yes, the daughter of an Alaskan governor and U.S. senator has been diligent in attempting to strip the Environmental Protection Agency of its Supreme Court-imbued authority to curb heat-trapping gases via the Clean Air Act.

However, she also wields extraordinary power as the top Republican on the prestigious Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and she's not a climate denier—unlike her Aug. 24 primary opponent Joe Miller and handfuls of other Republican Senate candidates.

She acknowledges the toll global warming is taking on the 49th state, and that kind of Republican moderation could be in short supply when the dust settles after November's elections.

It is also worth remembering that Murkowski co-sponsored a cap-and-trade bill in 2007, voted for an energy committee bill that included a 15 percent renewable electricity standard and is considered a potential swing vote on climate legislation, though not a bill with as much punch as the American Clean Energy and Security Act.

That’s a bit more environmental heft than can be attributed to the Kansas native, Persian Gulf War veteran, Yale Law School graduate and political rookie who flabbergasted most everybody by eking out a primary victory against Murkowski. No doubt, the latest darling of the “tea party” movement was aided by his Sarah Palin endorsement.

“We haven’t heard there’s man-made global warming,” Miller told an Alaska newspaper in August.

When pondering what Murkowski’s loss might mean to the dynamics of the energy and environment conversation on Capitol Hill, political trackers at several nationwide environmental organizations emphasized three points: 1) Don’t count Murkowski out yet 2) The Senate Energy Committee will have a different tenor if a North Carolinian replaces Murkowski as the ranking member and 3) Climate deniers could form an influential voting bloc in the Senate if enough of them are elected.

Murkowski Looking for Another Ballot Entry

News reports indicate Murkowski is casting about for ways to have her name on the Nov. 2 ballot; perhaps as a libertarian or maybe as a write-in candidate because of her excellent name recognition.

If she’s shut out on those options, it looks as if first-term Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., would be in line to become the ranking member of the energy committee. But that’s not a sure thing, Tony Massaro, senior vice president for political affairs at the League of Conservation Voters, told SolveClimate News in an interview.

“In a year like this that’s pretty crazy, he’s showing some vulnerability,” Massaro explains about Burr, who won with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. “He’s not well-known and his opponent is polling quite well for somebody who has not raised a lot of money.”

Burr is facing off against Democrat Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state who also served in the state senate from 1993-94.

And that whole chess game could be moot if Alaska's Democratic Senate candidate—Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams—can overcome funding and name recognition challenges to beat Murkowski or Miller.

“Quite frankly, before the primary, I would’ve said that McAdams couldn’t win,” Massaro notes. “But now I can’t say that because a lot can happen in 55 days, especially when voters are just starting to pay attention.”

“The entire dynamics of the Alaska race are completely unclear and weird in their own peculiar way,” Massaro emphasizes. “This has to play out a little while to see if Miller can consolidate all of the Republicans. Until we see some dust settling in Alaska, we won’t be doing any endorsements.”

Murkowski a Conservation Puzzle

It is highly unlikely that the League of Conservation Voters would ever endorse Murkowski or Burr as environmental saviors. Both register consistently low numbers on the advocacy organization’s trademark environmental scorecard.