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3-D Maps Pictured Sandy's Devastation–Five Years Ago

Is the destruction from superstorm Sandy a preview of what's to come as sea levels continue to rise from climate change?

Nov 1, 2012
(Page 2 of 3 )
Map of a flooding scenario under a 3-meter sea level rise in New York City (fl

The storm left New York City crippled, mainly due to flooding and high winds. The biggest hit was to the subway system, which carries some 5 million passengers a day. Seven subway tunnels under the East River were flooded out, making it the worst disaster the system has seen in its 108 years. Fourteen of 23 lines will resume limited service today. A massive fire in Queens destroyed roughly 100 homes in a beachside community, an unexpected disaster linked to the storm.

The storm's effects were felt across the East Coast. Pieces of the boardwalk in Atlantic City were swept away, and city streets were flooded with upwards of 2 feet of water. The Potomac River rose by as much as 9 feet, far exceeding the flood stage of 6 feet. Cities from North Carolina to Maine were inundated with several feet of water.

Map of Atlantic City in the Architecture 2030 report. Light blue shows the areas that will be underwater if sea levels rise by just 1.5 meters (4.9 feet). Floodwaters reached record depths of at least 6 feet following Sandy in Atlantic City. © 2007 2030, Inc. and © 2007 Google. Image courtesy of Architecture 2030, www.architecture2030.orgMap of Atlantic City in the Architecture 2030 report. Light blue shows the areas that will be underwater if sea levels rise by just 1.5 meters (4.9 feet). Floodwaters reached record depths of at least 6 feet following Sandy in Atlantic City. © 2007 2030, Inc. and © 2007 Google. Image courtesy of Architecture 2030, www.architecture2030.orgIt's a similar picture to the one painted in the report, which was published by Architecture 2030, an advocacy group working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. Using elevation data from USGS, sea level rise and other global warming projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA and the IPCC—and maps from Google—the group projected flooding and outages in 31 coastal cities from Seattle to Miami. The effects would be "calamitous, having the potential to destabilize many areas of the country," the report said.

Consequences of rising seas would reach far beyond those 31 cities, climate experts have warned. More than 50 percent of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas. A 2011 University of Arizona study identified 180 American cities that would be at risk from rising sea levels, including 20 that have more than 300,000 residents. A 1-meter (3-foot) rise in sea levels by 2100 would put an average of 9 percent of land in those cities at risk of flooding.

Nine large cities, including Boston and New York, would see damage on more than 10 percent of their cities in that scenario.

Columbia's Horton called Sandy a wake-up call for New York City and other areas vulnerable to flooding. "I hate to say there's a silver lining, but if there's any positive it's that we can use this to learn and get a better opportunity to prepare for the future," he said.

The state Sea Level Rise Task Force found that 11 percent of the city was at risk of flooding from higher sea levels.

That report predicted "dramatic implications" from rising seas—from flooding to coastal erosion—and said the state should begin updating flood maps, evaluating risk areas and preparing at-risk communities for coming floods. Essential infrastructure should be built at higher elevations and transportation and utility networks should be protected from salt water, the report said.

Columbia's Horton, who served on a separate New York City Panel on Climate Change, said Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration has been leading the pack among mayors in preparing for climate change—both studying the impacts and using policies to reduce the city's carbon footprint. However, "there's no denying how vulnerable New York City and its infrastructure is right now," Horton said.

"Clearly, there are issues that need to be investigated and with the storm there will be a fast-tracking of those investigations," Horton noted. Among those issues are determining the best way to heighten sea walls or whether to construct surge barriers to protect flood-prone areas.

Scientists have discussed the possibility of building such barriers around New York City, which could include using existing bridges as barriers. (London and the Netherlands have installed similar protections). But because it would take time to study and design the barriers, and because construction costs would be in the billions, little progress has been made.

Ultimately, Texas Tech's Hayhoe said, Sandy highlights the pressing need now for flood prevention.

"Even if you don't think climate change is real, the steps you take to prevent flooding are the same. You're building sea walls and preparing your systems," she said. "We all agree coastal cities are vulnerable. What matters is how prepared they are."

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