Minnesota's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Start to Decline

One state down, 49 to go?

Not exactly, but take a look at the accompanying chart. It tells a true story we've all been waiting to see: greenhouse gas emissions reaching a peak and starting to decline. Please feast your eyes.

The chart comes from a January 2009 progress report submitted to the Minnesota Legislature (attached below) by the state's Department of Commerce and its Pollution Control Agency. Here's what it says on page 6:

GHG emissions from Minnesota sources peaked in 2005 at 154 million CO2-eq. tons. Of this, about 80 percent is associated with fossil fuel combustion or the production and transportation of finished fuels like refined petroleum products.  As noted above, between 2005 and 2006 GHG emissions declined about 2 million CO2-eq. tons.

That puts Minnesota on track to reach the goal stipulated in its Green Solutions Act of 2008 of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 15% below 2005 levels by 2015. That's roughly equivalent to reaching 1990 levels of emissions by 2015 -- five years ahead of President Obama's current goal.

But will the state be able to follow the dotted line and continue on the same trajectory? Or will 2005 be another bump on a steadily rising curve?

We had a chat with David Thornton, Assistant Commissioner of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, to find out.

Since 2006, we've seen gas at $4 a gallon and the economy fell apart, so I would imagine emissions are not going to be growing, and they may even be dropping.

And otherwise, there's nothing that would cause it to go up. The question is, how much farther down can we get it, and how fast.

Thornton can't be sure because there is no formal emissions reporting requirement in the state, so the reasons emissions drop or rise are not always clear. For example, after 2000, the state noticed that the rate at which VMT -- vehicle miles traveled -- was increasing, dropped by 50%. The state's department of transportation is seeing less gas tax revenue as a result, and no one quite knows why.

It could just be frustration with traffic congestion. We're seeing increases in use of public transit and a light rail line opened up, but we don't know for sure.

But Thornton says the agency is quite certain about the reason Minnesota's emissions peaked in 2005 and declined by 2 million tons in 2006. Three measures that Thornton calls "extra base hits" are laid out in the progress report.

The first is the Conservation Improvement Program (CIP) that requires the state's utility companies to dedicate a portion of their revenues for projects that reduce the consumption of electricity and natural gas. The CIP program was stiffened in 2007 so that starting in 2010 utilities must reduce consumption annually by 1.5 percent of the utility's annual retail sales. The report indicates the CIP program accounted for about a quarter of the reported emissions reduction, and Thornton believes it will continue to deliver results.

The second large source of reductions is Minnesota's Renewable Energy Standard. Established in 2001 and ratcheted up in subsequent years, the standard has brought clean energy to the state at a fast pace. Minnesota now ranks No. 4 in the nation in installed wind capacity. By 2020, Xcel, the state's largest utility, must deliver 30% of its power from clean sources; other utilities must deliver 20%. Thornton says renewables will be a major contributor stabilizing and reducing the state's emissions going forward.