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Nova Scotia Proposes Emissions Cap on Coal-Fired Electricity Sector

Nova Scotia NPSI Power Plant

The Nova Scotia government is proposing a cap on emissions for its electricity sector that would take effect on January 10, 2010.

The proposal represents important progress for the Canadian province, which relies on coal, the dirtiest fuel, for 75 percent of its electric power.

It was almost two years ago that Nova Scotia committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to at least 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

But its consequent climate action plan fell short on details where most are needed -- in the electricity sector. And critics panned it.

The new cap will now "ensure" the reduction target is met, the government assures in a press release.

Nova Scotia's electricity sector by itself represents 50 percent of all of the province's greenhouse gas emissions. And by "sector," we mean Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NPSI). The single utility provides 95 percent of the province's electricity, nearly all of that from fossil fuels.

Reining in greenhouse gases in Nova Scotia requires regulating NPSI. And that's exactly what the government is urging.

Find all the details in its 13-page discussion paper, An Approach to Regulating Electricity Sector Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions in Nova Scotia. In sum, the new regulatory framework would

require Nova Scotia Power Inc. to cap greenhouse-gas and air-pollutant emissions at 9.7 million tonnes in 2010, at 8.8 million tonnes in 2015, and 7.5 million tonnes in 2020. That is a total reduction of 2.5 million tonnes, down from about 10 million tonnes produced by NSPI in 2007.

The caps, as you can see, would be "increasingly stringent." Failure to comply could result in financial penalties of up to $500,000 per day.

The proposal is now open for public comment.

Before moving on, it must be said that NSPI, or rather its owner, Emera Inc., is the poster child for fossil fuel pollution.

Coal- and oil-fired plants account for a massive 83.5 percent of Emera's current power production, with no sign of a change of course soon.

In a November 2008 ranking of the company, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors wrote that Emera ranks "below average" on environmental performance when compared to other companies in the sector. In a carbon-regulated global economy, that spells risk to investors. Via Innovest:

[Emera] has not developed proactive strategies to mitigate future carbon risks and create opportunities associated with improved carbon performance.

[Its] emissions rate is above average and despite recent commitments to purchase more wind power, the focus of the firm is on producing cheap power for ratepayers.

Knowing that, it's not surprising to learn there are skeptics of NSPI, and of the seriousness of the government's capacity to cap the utility's emissions in the near term.

They say NSPI had far too much influence in establishing the cap. As a result, they claim, the caps have been set to the utility's ability, not to the mitigation needs of the province.

On top of that, the Nova Scotia government isn't exactly promising a fast and sure track to fossil fuel independence. It has been clear in its calls for a measured and

"phased approach to transform the province's electricity system ... between now and 2020."

"There will also be a gradual transformation to cleaner energy sources.”

But we see notable progress.

A Conservative government in Canada has signaled acceptance of its greenhouse gas problem. It has set targets to restrict emissions. And now it's beginning to put forward ways to reach those targets.

In February 2007, Nova Scotia's Renewable Energy Standard took effect, requiring 20 percent of the province's electricity to come from renewables by 2013. It also recently announced that it will join the Western Climate Initiative as an observer.

Nova Scotia Power Sector GHG caps

This article is not balanced. It quotes one source as suggesting that: "the [NS] caps have been set to the utility's ability, not to the mitigation needs of the province."

The author might well have asked: what does NSPI have to do to comply with its new caps? The answer: shut down at least three coal-burning plants--plants that are currently under 38 years old and would normally operate for another 15 years or more--well before 2017.

Let's look at the RGGI market "caps" by comparison. 2004 through 2007 annual emissions for all of the sources sovered by the RGGI caps averaged 175 MTCO2e/year. The RGGI "cap" for 2008 through 2014 is 188 MTCO2e/year. While NSPI GHG/kWh rates are high compared to Canadian averages, they are lower than at similar vintage coal-fired units in the US and RGGI states in particular. And over 25% of the power supplied in the RGGI region orginates at plants that are already over 50 years old and which were already scheduled for replacement by gas-fired turbines before 2015, RGGI's own analysis forecasts a Business as Usual 2020 GHG forecast for the covered plants of 120 MTCO2e, before accounting for the cap and trade rule.

Nova Scotia has limited access to natural gas--at any price--so NSPI does not have the RGGI states' option of replacing coal-fired power with gas turbines. Prior to implementing the GHG cap regulation, Nova Scotia also ruled that NSPI has to source at least 13% of its TOTAL power sales from low impact renewable sources by 2013--given the NS definition of "renewable", a very stringent renewable power supply target compared to the norm elsewhere. At this time, it is impossible to forecast NSPI compliance with the legislated caps, even if it maxes out domestic geothermal and other renewable options, unless NSPI builds new transmission to import hydro and other renewable power resources from out-of-province.

In this broader context, Nova Scotia's regulation is more aggressive than any that has been contemplated or implemented anywhere in Europe, the US or Australia. You might also note that power production accounts for over 55% of the province's GHGs, so this one NSPI regulation gets the province closer to their (very aggressive) 2020 target than Australia's and Europe's entire cap and trade regimes get them to theirs.

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