Bonn Wrap-Up: Global Climate Treaty This Year Looks Increasingly "Impossible"

As climate change talks in Bonn, Germany, began wrapping up yesterday without any signs of real progress, Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, let the truth slip out to reporters: It will be "physically impossible" to have a detailed global warming deal by the December Copenhagen summit, he said.

Today, on the final day of the two-week negotiations, de Boer changed his tune, claiming he is now confident of reaching an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen.

But let's be real -- how will that happen?

Just look at the last two weeks. Negotiations began on June 1, with 53 pages of draft negotiating text on the table for the first time. That document brought new optimism. But over the course of the summit, delegates from 192 nations piled on 200 pages of particulars, injecting more complexity into what is already a complex process. 

The talks reinforced the gridlock between rich and poor nations, offered little in the way of political ambition and political will from the world's major polluters and ended without agreement. 

The notable high- and lowlights follow:

Industrialized nations once again failed to take strong leadership on short-term reduction targets for CO2.

Hopes were high that Japan would help raise the level of ambition for the world with its long-awaited announcement of a domestic target. But those dreams were dashed on June 10, when the nation declared an emissions reduction goal of just 8 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. That's two percent deeper than the cuts the nation is currently responsible for under the Kyoto protocol.

WWF described the target as "appalling" and a "trust killer." Point Carbon, an Oslo-based research and consulting company called it "the weakest target any country has pledged so far." China's climate ambassador Yu Qingtai said: "I do not believe it is a number that is close to what Japan needs to do, should do."

But Japan was not without its supporters. Jonathan Pershing, the U.S. deputy climate envoy, told Spiegel Online that "one should not underestimate Japan's efforts." And here's why:

Japan's target only includes reductions in domestic industrial emissions. It does not yet account for additional reductions from domestic forestry and agriculture, as well as international "offsets" from financing projects in developing nations.

The EU has pledged a 20 percent reduction, which could increase to 30 percent if other rich nations sign on. President Obama has said he wants to return US emissions to 1990 levels. The U.S. Congress is now debating the ACES climate bill, which could lead to a 4 percent cut below the 1990 baseline. Australia has declared a 5 percent cut below 1990 levels. That could go as high as 25 percent if a meaningful climate treaty is achieved. Russia has remained silent.

In total, the proposals from representatives of more than 30 of the world's richest nations amount to a reduction in the range of 17 percent to 26 percent of 1990 levels, de Boer has said. WWF claims that figure is actually closer to 10 percent.

Either way:

"This is not enough to address climate change," said de Boer.

So what is enough? Developing nations must cut emissions 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels to prevent catastrophic climate change. So says the climate science.