Poor Nations Will End Deforestation by 2030 if Rich Deliver Billions: New Copenhagen Text

Reporting from Copenhagen

A deal is on the table at UN climate talks that would require poor nations to halt deforestation completely by 2030 on the condition that wealthy nations fork over $22 billion to $37 billion to jump start the plan, according to new text leaked today in Copenhagen.

"There's money in there for the first time," Peg Putt of the Wilderness Society told SolveClimate in an interview. That alone is "quite significant," she said.

The proposal is one of three objectives being considered to drive the entire Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation scheme, known as REDD.

It's the only one with dollar amounts.

The range proposed isn't new. It comes from the Informal Working Group for Interim Finance on REDD, a project of the Prince of Wales and the government of Norway. On Thursday, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French Prime Minister Nicholas Sarkozy similarly announced that rich nations must come up with $25 billion between 2010 and 2015 in forestry seed money.

Despite an appearance of consensus, though, a financing commitment on REDD is hardly set in stone — in fact, nothing is in the highly bracketed, seven-page REDD draft, which doubled in size overnight.

The document is now headed to high-level ministers and probably heads of state for further hashing out. World leaders will have until close of the Copenhagen conference on Friday to finalize the details.

Money, Targets In

Last week, talks on REDD got bogged down in a dispute between poor and rich countries over financing. As a result, developing nations yanked numerical targets from a REDD draft leaked Friday.

The poorer countries said they wanted the wealthy to put up funds before they bound themselves to anything more than a generalized statement.

In today's text, targets are back on the table in two of the three objectives floated as options.

Sources say "Option 1," the least ambitious, has the most support. It states that

"all Parties shall collectively aim to reduce emission and increase removals by halting and reversing in forest cover and carbon loss in developing countries."

"It means absolutely nothing," said Roman Czebiniak, a lawyer who has been active in the negotiations.

"Option 2," courtesy of the European Union, boasts similar language with a key difference: a target requiring developing nations to stop forest loss by 2030.

It also specifies a mid-term goal. Countries would need to halve deforestation by 2020. Importantly, these targets would be conditional on financing, although specific dollar amounts were not mentioned.

If we can get the $22 billion to $37 billion dollar amount in there, said Czebiniak, "this would be the best option on the books."

"Option 3" is indeed historic in urging specific dollar amounts. But the fact that it makes no mention of a target for slowing deforestation by 2020 is a red flag for advocates.

REDD's Woes

In spite of some fresh optimism on REDD, advocates expressed frustration with the newly bloated agreement.

With just three days left of Copenhagen, "more is not better," Andrea Johnson, director of forest campaigns at the non-governmental Environmental Investigation Agency, told SolveClimate.

Further, earlier versions of REDD text protected natural forests from being razed for less climate-friendly palm oil and other plantations.

The "conversion safeguard," as it's called, was weakened in today's draft, according to analysts.