There’s a lot happening right now in U.S. energy and policy and it’s easy to lose track of the larger picture. I’m going to ask you to turn your attention, at least for a few minutes, to something bigger that’s also happening:
Solar power is moving toward dominance of the global energy system.
The trend lines for solar deployment, panel prices and efficiency all point to a future in which energy is cleaner, cheaper and more accessible than today.
A recent paper in Nature Energy summarizes where we’re likely heading. It lists more than 60 co-authors from some of the world’s leading research institutions, including the National Laboratory of the Rockies (which was the National Renewable Energy Laboratory before a recent name change), the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in Germany and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan.
“The global growth of photovoltaics for electricity generation has been remarkable, outpacing other energy technologies across history in rates of the expansion of manufacturing capacity and reduction in price,” said the paper.
As this continues, some of the main technological and policy challenges will involve designing an energy system that can operate with high levels of solar. Planners will need to develop a variety of power plants and energy-storage technologies to support the grid at night and during periods of low solar generation.
I spoke with Sarah Kurtz, an electrical engineering professor at the University of California, Merced and a co-author of the paper. She explained that the success of solar energy largely depends on the fact that the fuel—the sun—is free and plentiful.
“In one hour, the Earth receives enough light from the sun to power the world for the whole year,” she said.
She is a prolific researcher who has focused on improving solar panel performance, work she has focused on since the mid-1980s.
Andreas Bett, director of the Fraunhofer Institute and a co-author of the paper, said the growth of solar power has profound implications for making energy affordable and accessible. Solar is already the least expensive energy source in most of the world.
“There is no fundamental limit or resource problem for photovoltaic technology,” he said in an email. “It is a technology that will advance the prosperity of the entire global community. Nevertheless, it is important to continue developing the technology in order to ultimately achieve higher efficiency levels and thus reduce material consumption.”
The paper draws on discussions at the Terawatt Workshop, a gathering of solar researchers hosted in California in June 2024.
It begins by noting that the world now has 2 terawatts of solar photovoltaic generating capacity installed, which includes utility-scale and smaller systems. That’s a huge number, more than double what it was in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.
Based on current manufacturing capacity and growth forecasts, the world is on track to install about 75 terawatts of solar by 2050, the paper said. This indicates growth on a transformational scale.
Solar power would expand because of a combination of declining panel prices and increasing efficiency. Today, a highly efficient panel can convert about 30 percent of the solar radiation striking it into electricity. The paper identifies technological improvements that could increase efficiency to 35 percent by mid-century.
As panels become more efficient, projects require fewer of them to generate the same amount of electricity, which saves land and materials.
To understand where we’re heading, it’s helpful to understand where we are. As of 2024, renewable energy sources produced 32 percent of the world’s electricity and were on the verge of overtaking coal as the global leader, according to the IEA.
Hydropower was the world’s leading source of renewable electricity in 2024, followed by wind and then solar. But solar, which was 7 percent of global electricity generation, is growing the fastest and is on track to become the largest source.
For governments and businesses, success in the energy economy of the future will depend on maximizing the benefits of solar and adapting to a grid dominated by solar.
Much of the world seems to understand this, but the United States under President Donald Trump is heading in the opposite direction with policies that favor fossil fuels and eliminate tax incentives for solar. The Trump administration often talks about this as a desire to achieve “energy dominance” through increasing production of coal, oil and natural gas.
“(M)y energy policy is defined by maximum production, maximum prosperity, and maximum power,” Trump said in an Oct. 17 proclamation designating “National Energy Dominance Month.”
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Donate NowI asked Bett what he makes of recent energy decisions by U.S. leadership.
“In my personal opinion, it is a mistake for the U.S. government to cut subsidies for photovoltaics,” he said. “It is the technology of the future and will be implemented worldwide. Developments will now progress outside the U.S.—especially in China, which will be able to establish itself as the sole global market leader. It is a shame that a high-tech nation like the U.S. is turning its back on a high-tech development.”
Kurtz said it’s shortsighted for the United States to not try to be a leader in solar.
“Solar is such a strong technology that the U.S. not supporting it will not be able to stop it,” she said. “The U.S. may get left behind.”
Other stories about the energy transition to take note of this week:
Global EV Sales Rose 20 Percent in 2025: China led the way in 2025, a year of rapid growth in electric vehicle sales. There was progress in every major region except for North America, according to the research firm Rho Motion. Global consumers bought 20.7 million EVs, an increase of 20 percent from the prior year. China accounted for the majority of that total, with 12.9 million cars and light trucks sold within its borders, up 17 percent. The highest percentage growth was in Europe, which was up 33 percent with 4.3 million in sales. In North America, where the market was hurt by the cancellation of tax credits for EV buyers, sales were 1.8 million, down 4 percent.
Offshore Wind Developers Appear in Court to Fight Trump Stop-Work Order: The developer of Revolution Wind, an offshore wind project off the coast Rhode Island, can proceed with construction after a federal judge on Monday struck down the Trump administration’s order that offshore wind projects needed to stop work for national security reasons, as Lisa Friedman and Maxine Joselow report for The New York Times. A judge heard a similar challenge on Wednesday from the developer of Empire Wind off of New York, and appeared skeptical of the administration’s objections to the project but did not immediately issue a ruling, as Blake Brittain and Nichola Groom report for Reuters. Dominion Energy also has gone to court to try to resume construction of its project off of Virginia, with a hearing scheduled for Friday.
Meta Makes a Big Bet on Nuclear Power: Meta, the company that owns Facebook, has announced agreements with three nuclear power providers to supply electricity for its data centers, as Jonathan Vanian reports for CNBC. One of those deals involves Oklo, a company developing new approaches to nuclear power at a campus in Ohio that is set to open around 2030. The Meta-Oklo partnership is especially interesting, as Alexander Kaufman reports for Wired, because of the extent of Meta’s commitment and concerns about Oklo’s viability.
Big Business Is Investing Heavily in Solar Despite Trump Opposition: Recent solar development agreements indicate that businesses continue to view this power source as a worthwhile investment even as the Trump administration is hostile to renewables, as Clara Hudson reports for The Wall Street Journal. One example is from the fashion industry, where Tapestry, the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade, announced that its partner Pivot Energy has finished development of three community solar projects in Illinois.
Inside Clean Energy is ICN’s weekly bulletin of news and analysis about the energy transition. Send news tips and questions to [email protected].
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Dan Gearino
Reporter, Clean Energy
Dan Gearino covers the business and policy of renewable energy and utilities, often with an emphasis on the midwestern United States. He is the main author of ICN’s Inside Clean Energy newsletter. He came to ICN in 2018 after a nine-year tenure at The Columbus Dispatch, where he covered the business of energy. Before that, he covered politics and business in Iowa and in New Hampshire. He grew up in Warren County, Iowa, just south of Des Moines, and lives in Columbus, Ohio.
