Solar panel maker SoloPower cut the ribbon on its Portland factory last month—a crucial step in getting its $197 million loan guarantee from the federal government. The money would flow from the same taxpayer-supported program that bet on bankrupt solar firm Solyndra.
That fact set off alarm bells.
SoloPower could be a "possible sequel to Solyndra," warned a Fox News broadcast, echoing a familiar refrain in conservative media and by Republican politicians, who have jumped on Solyndra as an example of failed clean energy policy and government overreach.
So how risky is SoloPower, really?
The tiny solar startup could fall victim to the same market forces that helped sink Solyndra, according to Anthony Kim, a solar insight analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in New York. "There are approximately 400 solar manufacturers in the world, when in fact the industry probably needs only about 20 of them."
But just as possibly, SoloPower could survive the turbulence and succeed as a global player, if its flexible and lightweight solar panels can penetrate the untapped industrial market, analysts told InsideClimate News.
"For better or worse, SoloPower has a lot to prove," said MJ Shiao, senior analyst of solar markets at GTM Research, a Boston-based consulting company.
Tim Harris, SoloPower's CEO, brushed off any speculation of being the next Solyndra. SoloPower has "more customer demand than we have the capacity to meet," he said in an interview. "We're creating an American manufacturing success story."
Flexible, Lighter, Cheaper: How SoloPower Could Beat the Odds
SoloPower and Solyndra came on the scene at the same time in 2005, with a similar goal: to change the economics of commercial solar, by slashing the time and costs it takes to install rooftop panels on industrial buildings.
Solyndra's solution was to coat tubes of glass with thin-film technology called CIGS and mount them to metal racks. The tubes would capture sunlight from all angles, unlike flat-plated panels, which only take in overhead rays.
But Solyndra's modules, while quick to install, proved expensive to produce—and consumer demand stayed low.
During that time, SoloPower honed a flat CIGS panel design that was lighter and more flexible than Solyndra's—and as a result could go on more types of rooftops. SoloPower's panels are rolled on rooftops like carpets and secured with special adhesives. The company is targeting factories and other industrial facilities whose roofs can't support the weight of traditional flat panels, which require aluminum frames and heavy metal racks.
SoloPower CEO Harris estimates that lighter panels like SoloPower's are the only option for half the world's commercial rooftops. Silicon modules (panels plus installation gear) weigh between 40 and 60 pounds each; SoloPower's modules weigh about 13 pounds, he said. Per square foot, SolarPower's panels are five times lighter than those made by Solyndra, according to the companies' estimates.
Shiao, the GTM analyst, said SoloPower also has a cost advantage.
Solyndra's modules were expensive to produce, mainly because they required a new process to manufacture them, he said. "It was always difficult to imagine them being able to aggressively reduce costs on that technology itself."
SoloPower is adapting an existing manufacturing process, which cuts costs. The Portland facility will use a 6,000-foot-long roll of stainless steel—which looks like a giant rolling pin—to produce sheets of laminate that it sprays with chemicals needed to convert sunlight into electricity.
Harris declined to disclose the per-watt price of SoloPower's panels, calling it "competitive information."
So far, SoloPower has installed just 1 megawatt of panels on rooftops in 20 countries. Harris said his company expects to make a profit starting next year, when its first production line reaches a capacity of 75 megawatts of panels a year.
Within the next three years, SoloPower hopes to expand its $60 million factory into a $340 million facility that can produce 400 megawatts' worth of panels annually.
SoloPower's promises might sound familiar to some.
In 2010, Solyndra declared at a now-infamous press conference with President Obama that it would produce 500 megawatts' worth of panels per year at its facility in Fremont, Calif. In the end, it installed 100 megawatts of solar capacity before it went bankrupt on Aug. 31, 2011. It never became profitable.
For taxpayers, the risk is lower with SoloPower, however.