Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam Are Driving up Global Coffee Prices

Your morning caffeine fix could soon become a luxury in the face of climate change. Last week, coffee prices surged to a 47-year high as global growers struggle to recover from extreme weather. 

Over the past year, extended droughts have gripped Brazil and Vietnam—the world’s two largest producers of coffee. Scientists say the parched conditions were fueled by the El Niño weather pattern and global warming, which have triggered widespread coffee crop losses that could also affect next year’s supply. 

Research shows that these conditions are a harbinger of our coffee future. By 2050, rising temperatures are projected to shrink suitable coffee-growing regions by half, which could eliminate a crucial revenue source for farmers in developing countries.

For the average consumer, coffee prices are expected to surge even higher with climate change (a shuddering thought as I sip on an already overpriced cappuccino). Now, coffee companies are testing a variety of strategies to adapt to climate shocks, from diversifying their sources to shifting away from the crop altogether. 

Dry and Scorched Roasts: In September, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters said the country was undergoing the “most intense and widespread drought in history,” with nearly 60 percent of the region under stress. El Niño and climate change jacked up heat in South America, which exacerbated dryness in the region. But the drought can also be partially attributed to the rampant deforestation that has occurred in Brazil over the past few decades, which has altered rainfall patterns and the amount of moisture the land can absorb, The Washington Post reports. 

As I wrote in November, droughts go hand in hand with wildfires. Over the past year, Brazil has seen some of its worst wildfires in decades, largely caused by a farming technique known as “slash-and-burn,” which is when farmers cut and scorch trees to clear land for more crops. Ironically, the fires started by this practice, as well as dry soil from the droughts, have devastated sugarcane, fruit and especially coffee crop yields across the country. Coffee growers in Vietnam have also been hit hard by droughts, and some are recovering from Typhoon Yagi, which hit the country in September. 

In Brazil, steady rain showers finally fell in October, which led to ample flowering of coffee crops, but farmers fear it may be too late for their trees to recover and bear fruit, Reuters reports. Many small-scale coffee farms in both countries are struggling to stay afloat. 

“Coffee is the canary in the coal mine for climate change and its effect on agriculture,” Elizabeth Shapiro-Garza, associate professor of the practice of environmental policy and management at Duke University, told The Canadian Press.

Coffee arabica—the species most commonly used in consumer roasts—is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. The plants thrive in the shady, moist environments found in tropical countries, typically growing best between 64 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. But a 2022 study found that climate change will fuel higher temperatures that push key coffee-growing regions such as parts of Eastern Brazil and Southeast Asia out of coffee’s climatic sweet spot. The researchers identified a few areas in East Africa, Asia and South America that could benefit from changing conditions, but stressed that many of them do not yet have the infrastructure or space to support widespread coffee growth without adding to deforestation. 

Market Reactions: The price of arabica beans has spiked almost 70 percent on the New York Stock Exchange this year, with contracts for future yields costing $3.35 a pound at one point last week.

The industry is taking major hits, which will likely trickle down to consumers soon, experts say. In November, coffee maker Nestle SA announced that it will raise prices and produce smaller bags to weather the storm—or in this case, drought. Other business leaders are also reckoning with how to meet ever-growing demand for the beverage despite shrinking supplies. 

“There is an urgency now, because this year proves that the impact of climate change cannot be underestimated,” Andrea Illy, chief executive officer of coffee company illycaffè, said in October. “It is starting to change the market itself.”

For some companies, adapting means investing in new regions to stimulate growth beyond South America. Starbucks—which buys 3 percent of the world’s coffee supplies—announced in October that it is buying two farms in Guatemala and Costa Rica. European coffee roaster Lavazza has invested more than $1.5 million to revive Cuba’s coffee industry. 

In other cases, new businesses are popping up to help climate-proof—or even replace—the bean itself. In April, Grist and Slate co-published a piece about these efforts, with reporter taste-test reviews of chickpea brews and barley javas, if you want to learn more. 

More Top Climate News 

The international plastic negotiations in Busan, South Korea, which I wrote about last week, ended on Sunday without finalizing a global treaty to address the world’s plastic pollution. The fifth United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee meeting was meant to be the last, but countries were at odds on key decisions such as whether to impose mandatory plastic production caps. Instead, they decided to kick the can (or plastic bottle) down the road by planning another round of talks for next year, Jennifer McDermott reports for The Associated Press. 

Meanwhile, proceedings for the world’s biggest climate change court case began yesterday at The Hague in the Netherlands under the U.N. International Court of Justice. A coalition of small island nations led by Vanuatu argue that “a handful of readily identifiable states” should be held legally responsible for climate impacts due to their vast output of greenhouse gas emissions. Over the next two weeks, the courts will hear statements from nearly 100 countries, including the United States and China, as well as Sudan and Pacific island nations. Keep an eye out for more coverage from my colleague Bob Berwyn, who is currently in the Netherlands for the case. 

The first-ever international flight landed in Nuuk, Greenland—part of a growing trend to open up more of the pristine region to tourism. Surveys suggest strong support from locals for beefing up Greenland tourism, but some fear it could come at a cost to the environment if development scales up too rapidly. To help prevent this, Greenland passed a tourism law that will classify particularly sensitive areas and require tourism businesses to be predominantly owned by people who actually live and pay taxes in the territory, Daniel Boffey reports for The Guardian. 

Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Saturday. As coastal residents heave a collective sigh of relief after a catastrophic series of storms, researchers are busy at work learning what they can from the unusually active season to better forecast in the future, Evan Bush reports for NBC News. 

“Every year there’s one or two things that make me scratch my head, and this year I was doing more head-scratching than normal,” Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic hurricane forecasts, told NBC. “What stood out to me—it was like a switch flipped and it went completely off and completely on. It went from nothing to Helene and a bunch of storms in the east Atlantic and Milton.”

Over the last three months, around 12,000 public electric vehicle chargers have come online in the United States. That adds up to 204,000 ports in this network across the country, which is double the number at the end of 2020, according to the U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation. Despite the growing rollout, consumers still complain of gaps in charging infrastructure, which I wrote about in September.